Betting Tips and Kelly Criterion in Soccer Betting 2008 Vs 2009

To be a successful punter in soccer betting, you should intelligently guess two main things: the probability of a win and the size of the stake. Online betting tips and team news can help you to estimate the probability of a win, but choosing the stake size is a more complicated task that requires each punter to decide according to his individual betting strategy.

This article summarizes a research intended to optimize the use of Kelly strategy, the most profitable of all the existing betting strategies. The research is based on a comparison between statistics of betting profits of top European soccer leagues that played during 2008/09 and those playing in 2009/10 seasons.

Data and Methods

  • The research was conducted based on match results and average betting odds from 60+ bookmakers taken from the following European Soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki Katigoria, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Super Lig.
  • Each match outcome receives its own value defined by multiplication: odds x probability of a win. When this value is higher than one, it is considered as a “value bet”.
  • The probability of home win/draw/away wins in this research is defined by the frequency of their appearance in a national tournament.
  • According to Kelly’s strategy, the wager for each outcome is calculated as follows: w * (p-(1-p)/(odds-1)) (w represents the wealth of the punter and p is the probability of a win). For example, if your wealth is 1000$, p is 50% and the odds are 2.5, then the preferable wager is equal to 1000$*(0.5 – 0.5/(2.5-1))=166$
  • The punter’s profit is calculated by assuming he places a wager according to the Kelly’s strategy for those outcomes whose value is the closest to the value bet defined a priory.
  • An optimal value bet is a bet resulting in a maximal profit for a punter.

Research Summary

According to the research, the optimal value bet for soccer betting is 1.37 (2009) compared to 1.39 (2008). The betting profit of a punter who uses Kelly’s strategy with these optimal value bets is equal to 10% in 2008 and 14% in 2009. The results show that when a punter uses Kelly’s strategy placing bets on the outcomes with an average value bet of 1.38, the betting profits will be maximal. High quality betting tips can increase the profits dramatically but the optimal value bets have to be recalculated to adapt them to the accuracy of your betting tips.

Gambling and Betting – Is There a Difference?

I do not want to sound professional by way of definitions here but just to give as much as possible a graphic view of how the two keywords, gambling and betting, relate in the world of sports.

Gambling generally refers to an activity where money or something of material value is set aside for two parties to predict the outcome of an event and the one whose prediction coincides with the outcome takes the wager. The outcome of the event is evident within a short period of time. Gambling takes many forms including lottery, casinos and any other games of the like which leaves the winner getting additional money or something of higher value.

Betting is a contract usually between two parties, where it is agreed that any of the parties will forfeit money or something of material value if that party makes an incorrect prediction about an uncertain outcome. The exact money or its value is known and it is most often contributed before the outcome of the prediction.

Is there really any difference between these two terms? Though we most often interchange the use of the terms gambling and betting, I personally see some slight difference. I see betting as a subset of gambling for the latter is a general term which does not connote any legality to be tendered in the courts should the need be.

Betting is most often found in various sports activities including NBA, MLB and NFL. People are really making regular incomes from bets and you will love you did.

Online Sports Betting Forums Available

Betting on team sports has become an important service industry in many countries including the USA, the UK and Australia just to name a few. For example, millions of Britons play the football pools every week. By definition sports betting is the process of predicting sports results by making wagers on the outcome of the game. Forums online that allow you the ability to bet on your favorite team have revolutionized sports betting. Forums more often than not offer a lively “give and take” where the bettors will talk about their predictions and help one each other decide on profitable bets.

If you are interested in forums or websites such as these, there are a few million places you can visit but some of my favorite ones are listed below. Note I take no responsibility for these sites nor am I an affiliate or an owner, they are just ones that I like personally! It’s your responsibility as a bettor to check out all sites beforehand!

Docs Sports

Robert Ferrigno

The RX Forum

Betting Talk

Ultimate Capper

Predict Em

Major Wager

Further more, if you are interested in doing sport bets online or you would like some extra tips and hints, I found a really cool site with lots of information about these topics in mind. Here are a few tips that were listed on the website:

Money Management –

Be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose. Also, know when it’s time to stop. If you set aside $500 be sure not to go over $500!

Never Gamble Under The Influence –

It might seem obvious to some people, but just because gambling casinos give out free drinks while you are gambling, doesn’t mean you should take advantage of it! Alcohol can cloud your judgement. When you are gambling you need a clear mind.

Do Your Homework –

Follow a niche carefully and learn everything about it that you possibly can.

Bet At The Right Time –

Gambling isn’t just about winning or just about money, it’s also about being sharp, knowing when to bet and when to not bet. If your one of those people that get “gut feelings” and most of the time you’re right, it’s a good idea to follow what you feel!

Here are a few gambling, casino and sports betting sites you can check out:

Absolute Poker

Full Tilt Poker (awesome site!)

Doyle’s Room

The Greek

Bingo Knights

Cool Cat Casino

Cirrus Casino

International Slots League

I wish you great luck with finding the right site online for all your gambling needs and I hope you win a whole lot of money in the process!

Online Sport Betting – You Can Easily Make Winning Bets From Home

Online sport betting is a very popular form of gambling that counts for billions of dollars worldwide. The online betting industry has been growing every day since its emergence, which basically coincided with the outset of the Internet. You can legally bet on sports today through one of the hundreds of different online sport betting sites where they are all headquartered at offshore gambling institutions in countries where it is legal to hold such activities. However, some of the sites out there are risky and you should choose your Internet sportsbook wisely.

Although you probably already know that gambling in itself is a dicey endeavor, placing a wager at a reputable online betting site can lower the risk of you losing your funds from a scam. In fact, the main reasons why online sports betting is becoming more popular are because it’s fun and can be done everyday, it adds an exciting element to a sporting event, and it gives you the opportunity to win a lot of easy money. Read this article to discover how you can safely and effortlessly place online sport bets and learn how to give yourself the opportunity to make easy money.

With the advent of the Internet, online sport betting has transformed the very definition of sports gambling. Traditionally, it has been regarded as a general activity for sports fans to participate in occasionally, which would heighten their interest for a particular game or sporting event. This activity would also benefit the leagues and teams of interest because there would be a bigger television audience and greater attendance numbers at the games themselves.

Back in the day, the only places you could even engage in such activities (in the United States) would be Las Vegas or other casinos where gambling was legal – and where there were numerous bookmakers standing by more than willing to accept your wager. However, the Internet has since opened the door for a worldwide online sport betting industry where gambling restrictions are weak or otherwise nonexistent.

You may be wondering: Is online sport betting legal? The answer is yes, and it can be done through an online sportsbook. Over the last decade, hundreds of Internet sportsbooks began accepting regular sports wagers from all types of bettors. Since the legality of sports betting and the general acceptance of gambling varies from country to country, nearly all online sportsbooks that have come into existence today are located offshore. Most are headquartered in Central American countries or on Caribbean island nations where not only they allow bookmakers to accept bets, but sports betting in general is a commended activity because the institutions provide strong financial benefits for its employees, especially in the smaller, poorer countries such as Jamaica and Costa Rica.

The best online sports betting sites advertise their companies through the mainstream media in the United States, such as in sports magazines, college newspapers, or on other general gambling websites. This is because the target market for these institutions are American sports bettors, especially because of the popularity of betting on games in baseball, basketball, and football.

However, as legitimate as they may seem, one must take caution before choosing an Internet sportsbook. They could be operating in a country with loosely defined laws or in one that doesn’t govern their regulations. Some are run by poorly financed companies, which would result in a high risk for bettors to safely wire money online to the sport betting sites and into their bankroll. The best betting sites generally have a few other companies that are all linked to a strong financial institution, such as the BetCRIS Group (Bet Costa Rica International Sports), which has been regarded as the industry leader in the offshore business.

In general, since online sport betting is readily available for sports fans and gamblers alike, it has been steadily growing as an entertaining activity to take part in and is increasing in popularity everyday. Today, there are overall fewer risks when placing a wager at a reputable sportsbook than there used to be before gambling came online. Sports betting has always heightened the interest for a particular sporting event, and will continue to adhere to the overall popularity of all games worldwide.

You can see how online betting provides the opportunity for anyone – regardless of gambling experience – to participate in a legal activity that can open the door to make easy money betting on sports. Online sport betting has made it very convenient for gamblers to make sports bets with Internet bookmakers in the comfort of their own home, and most betting sites offer a variety of valuable resources to use so that you always have the best chances of winning your bet.