Betting Tips and Money Management in Soccer Betting

Soccer experts provide you with betting tips, the media publishes the latest news about the opponent teams and their key players, bookmakers support hundreds of betting methods. However, when you finally place your huge wager on a sure favorite, this is the time to start praying. Unfortunately, the world of soccer betting is quite unpredictable. There are thousands of factors playing against us. How can we cut our betting losses? The only way to do it is by using money management strategies. This article summarizes the methods and strategies of betting money management and provides a statistical comparison of their performance based on betting odds and match results of top European leagues.

The most common betting money management strategies in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers and Kelly criterion. While the first two do not require any prior information, Kelly criterion requires the punter to know the probability of a win.

Definitions

Before presenting the performance analysis, a brief description of the above-mentioned strategies is necessary:

— Martingale strategy means doubling the stack after a loss and returning back to the starting stack after a win. This strategy is the most popular today and promises positive profits, but requires intensive money investments.

— Row of numbers means planning a series of constant profits. Given betting odds, the punter calculates each stake in a way that will allow him to make the planned profit. In case he loses, he should increase the next stack in such a way the profit will return both the money already lost and the planned profits for the lost games. This strategy is less aggressive than Martingale but still dangerous.

— Kelly criterion: mathematically proven to be the best strategy in the long run. However, it requires knowing the probability of a win. The stacks are calculated in proportion of the size of your funds and according to the relation between the probability of a win and the betting odds. When probability and odds are high, a high stack will be placed and vice versa.

Data and Methods

In order to evaluate the performance of each strategy, we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for the top European leagues. Imagine that bookmakers are punters who place a stake on a favorite with minimal betting odds. One can easily estimate the probability of a win by dividing the average number of home/draw/away outcomes by the total number of games in a season.

The betting odds and results are taken from the four European top leagues playing in the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division.

Summary

— The results show that Kelly criterion is the best money management strategy of the three with an average profit of +5% compared to +1% (Row) and +1.2% (Martingale).

— The most profitable was the French Ligue 1 with a betting profit of +22% (Kelly), +9% (Row) and +10% (Martingale).

— The least profitable was the English Premier League with a betting loses of -10% (Kelly) ), -9% (Row) and -8% (Martingale).

What Does ‘Backing a Team to Win’ Mean in Betting?

‘Backing a team to win’ is a common term used in betting. In the olden times, only this kind of betting used to take place. Traditionally, a bookmaker was involved in such type of a betting process. Actually, he/she was the one to carry out the whole transaction for you. It is here that these bookmakers tried their best to deceive the innocent people. Now is the time, when everything is done without any hassles over the Internet. There are plenty of online betting exchange sites that allow you to indulge in bet exchanging and change your destiny. Bookmakers are now out of the scene and that is a plus point for bettors.

In simple terms, backing can be defined as the act of making your selection and betting on it. When you back a team to win, you place your bet predicting that your chosen horse will win in the race. You can place bet on other sports as well. The main thing to be emphasized here is that you predict the outcome of the game as to who will be the winner and place bet on it. When you exchange bets, you have the liberty to demand a higher price. For doing this, all you need to do is simply click on the back button and fill the figure of your choice. Once you have entered the figure revealing your bet, it will then shift to the lay section. If your bet price matches with the laying price of other bettor, your bet will be placed. In other case, if there is nobody to lay your selection, then you will have to either lower down your bet price or take what has been offered. It all depends on how enthusiastic you are and how you perceive things.

Let us try to understand the above mentioned concept with the help of an example. Let us suppose that the best offer in the market for draw at France vs Italy is 2.80. At this point of time, you need to go through betting exchange rates. Let us consider that you succeed in finding an odd bet of 2.90. Now this kind of a bet can certainly be considered and you can think of backing or buying the bet. The procedure is almost similar to what was practiced earlier when bookmakers were involved.

In case it happens that you select an event, make selection, place bet and make a clear cut mention of your stake but are not satisfied with the final result, then you have the option of back order available with you. Let us consider for a while that you are happy with the available odds and your desire is to bet at odds 3.10, then you can place the order for backing at 3.10 by putting 100 pounds on stake. In this situation, you will have to wait for the time till you succeed in finding a punter who is ready to draw the match at 3.10 by laying 100 pounds. If someone is ready to match your bet deal then your bet can be placed. If you find a bettor who is ready to put 30 pounds on stake at 3.10, then for the left 70 pounds, you need to look for another bookmaker who can lay bet at 3.10. This is how backing is done.

Sports Betting 101- How to Bet on NBA Basketball

Basketball can be one of the tougher sports to handicap for novices, most believe that teams will perform the same (good or bad) in each outing because there are no weather concerns like those that exist in football, while it is indeed true that each basketball contest takes place indoors, most fail to realize how hard it is to play a sting of back to back to back games and especially if travel is involved, in this article we will look at the various factors that must be considered when handicapping NBA hoops.

Certain principles hold true no matter what sport you are handicapping, for example, injuries play a key role in any sporting event but plays a much bigger role in the NBA because they only have five starters on the hardwood versus 22 total starters on an NFL team and also have much less depth on their overall roster, this means that you really need to know the injury situation and who the backup player is before making a wager on an NBA game.

Another consideration is where the game will be played, home court is a much larger factor in the NBA than in the NFL, this comes into play when the home team is listed as the doggie and the visiting team has injuries or is in the midst of a three game or more road trip, keep in mind that road weary teams have tired legs and tired legs lose games in the final minutes.

The NBA is similar to the NFL in that fans also double as gamblers, this means that certain teams have a public following that will place wagers on them no matter what the posted point spread is, usually this can be exploited when this public team is playing at home and laying a bushel full of points to a divisional rival.

Always remember to “Line shop” for the best possible number on your team of choice in order to better enhance your chances of a winning wager, also, beware of laying the hook with road favorites and especially when key numbers are involved, a key number in the NBA is defined as any number which is a multiple of two, the reason why of course is because a basket is worth two points.

Never forget that a winning gambler is a hard working gambler, its best to stay one step ahead of the betting public by being more prepared than they are, this means that you need to know about bad scheduling situations, team chemistry problems, and injury concerns before the public, the information is readily available to everyone but its really an issue of who will go the extra mile by doing the research.

Do Betting Bots Really Make Money?

They have been around for several years now but the question remains can you make money with a betting bot. Betting bots are specialist pieces of software which integrate with betting exchanges like Betfair and Betdaq to automatically place bets within pre defined rules. If you set them up to a winning betting strategy yes you can make money with them.

I have developed many winning betting systems for horse racing and it’s long been a passion of mine. The issue has been that of time. As well as research to find the bets to place actually placing them can be very time consuming and the arrival of bots has revolutionised this for me.

A flexible bot like the oddly named grey horse bot can be used for a wide range of sports and this has opened up many other ways for me to make money. In particular, greyhound betting has become a very nice income stream. There are 300% more greyhound races than horse races in the UK and of course only 6 runners in each race. Also there are no jockeys to worry about and the ‘politics’ are much less of a factor! Greyhounds can be very unpredictable and using a betting bot it’s possible to make good profits laying them to lose.

Football betting is another way to make money with a betting bot. As well as straightforward backing and laying it’s also possible to trade for a profit on Betfair. This is all about making bets before the match kicks off and then making further bets as the game progresses. Again this can be very time consuming and so using a bot frees me up to do other things while it does the work for me.

Two of the concerns people have about bots are the potential cost and the safety and security issues. Many people think they are expensive to use but free trials of bots are usually offered. I more than coveer the monthly subscription with my regular ongoing profits. With regards to safety, a tool like grey horse bot has many in built safety features to limit your liability and protect your betting bank. I have never had issues with them as they are very sophisticated and built by experts.

A robust and reliable betting system is of course key to success. Over the past eleven years I have developed systems for horse racing, greyhounds and football and use these on a daily basis. Sadly there’s a lot of hype out there and new systems arrive on the market every week claiming to make thousands of dollars consistent profit. This really isn’t possible and you must bet safely and sensibly to protect your betting bank. I advise discipline is key and you must be able to resist ‘going for broke’ and deviating from a system!

Betting bots have revolutionised betting for me and compliment my winning systems to ensure I make ongoing profits without having to be tied to a computer screen all day.

Betting Tips and Kelly Criterion in Soccer Betting 2008 Vs 2009

To be a successful punter in soccer betting, you should intelligently guess two main things: the probability of a win and the size of the stake. Online betting tips and team news can help you to estimate the probability of a win, but choosing the stake size is a more complicated task that requires each punter to decide according to his individual betting strategy.

This article summarizes a research intended to optimize the use of Kelly strategy, the most profitable of all the existing betting strategies. The research is based on a comparison between statistics of betting profits of top European soccer leagues that played during 2008/09 and those playing in 2009/10 seasons.

Data and Methods

  • The research was conducted based on match results and average betting odds from 60+ bookmakers taken from the following European Soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki Katigoria, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Super Lig.
  • Each match outcome receives its own value defined by multiplication: odds x probability of a win. When this value is higher than one, it is considered as a “value bet”.
  • The probability of home win/draw/away wins in this research is defined by the frequency of their appearance in a national tournament.
  • According to Kelly’s strategy, the wager for each outcome is calculated as follows: w * (p-(1-p)/(odds-1)) (w represents the wealth of the punter and p is the probability of a win). For example, if your wealth is 1000$, p is 50% and the odds are 2.5, then the preferable wager is equal to 1000$*(0.5 – 0.5/(2.5-1))=166$
  • The punter’s profit is calculated by assuming he places a wager according to the Kelly’s strategy for those outcomes whose value is the closest to the value bet defined a priory.
  • An optimal value bet is a bet resulting in a maximal profit for a punter.

Research Summary

According to the research, the optimal value bet for soccer betting is 1.37 (2009) compared to 1.39 (2008). The betting profit of a punter who uses Kelly’s strategy with these optimal value bets is equal to 10% in 2008 and 14% in 2009. The results show that when a punter uses Kelly’s strategy placing bets on the outcomes with an average value bet of 1.38, the betting profits will be maximal. High quality betting tips can increase the profits dramatically but the optimal value bets have to be recalculated to adapt them to the accuracy of your betting tips.

Gambling and Betting – Is There a Difference?

I do not want to sound professional by way of definitions here but just to give as much as possible a graphic view of how the two keywords, gambling and betting, relate in the world of sports.

Gambling generally refers to an activity where money or something of material value is set aside for two parties to predict the outcome of an event and the one whose prediction coincides with the outcome takes the wager. The outcome of the event is evident within a short period of time. Gambling takes many forms including lottery, casinos and any other games of the like which leaves the winner getting additional money or something of higher value.

Betting is a contract usually between two parties, where it is agreed that any of the parties will forfeit money or something of material value if that party makes an incorrect prediction about an uncertain outcome. The exact money or its value is known and it is most often contributed before the outcome of the prediction.

Is there really any difference between these two terms? Though we most often interchange the use of the terms gambling and betting, I personally see some slight difference. I see betting as a subset of gambling for the latter is a general term which does not connote any legality to be tendered in the courts should the need be.

Betting is most often found in various sports activities including NBA, MLB and NFL. People are really making regular incomes from bets and you will love you did.

Online Sports Betting Forums Available

Betting on team sports has become an important service industry in many countries including the USA, the UK and Australia just to name a few. For example, millions of Britons play the football pools every week. By definition sports betting is the process of predicting sports results by making wagers on the outcome of the game. Forums online that allow you the ability to bet on your favorite team have revolutionized sports betting. Forums more often than not offer a lively “give and take” where the bettors will talk about their predictions and help one each other decide on profitable bets.

If you are interested in forums or websites such as these, there are a few million places you can visit but some of my favorite ones are listed below. Note I take no responsibility for these sites nor am I an affiliate or an owner, they are just ones that I like personally! It’s your responsibility as a bettor to check out all sites beforehand!

Docs Sports

Robert Ferrigno

The RX Forum

Betting Talk

Ultimate Capper

Predict Em

Major Wager

Further more, if you are interested in doing sport bets online or you would like some extra tips and hints, I found a really cool site with lots of information about these topics in mind. Here are a few tips that were listed on the website:

Money Management –

Be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose. Also, know when it’s time to stop. If you set aside $500 be sure not to go over $500!

Never Gamble Under The Influence –

It might seem obvious to some people, but just because gambling casinos give out free drinks while you are gambling, doesn’t mean you should take advantage of it! Alcohol can cloud your judgement. When you are gambling you need a clear mind.

Do Your Homework –

Follow a niche carefully and learn everything about it that you possibly can.

Bet At The Right Time –

Gambling isn’t just about winning or just about money, it’s also about being sharp, knowing when to bet and when to not bet. If your one of those people that get “gut feelings” and most of the time you’re right, it’s a good idea to follow what you feel!

Here are a few gambling, casino and sports betting sites you can check out:

Absolute Poker

Full Tilt Poker (awesome site!)

Doyle’s Room

The Greek

Bingo Knights

Cool Cat Casino

Cirrus Casino

International Slots League

I wish you great luck with finding the right site online for all your gambling needs and I hope you win a whole lot of money in the process!

Online Sport Betting – You Can Easily Make Winning Bets From Home

Online sport betting is a very popular form of gambling that counts for billions of dollars worldwide. The online betting industry has been growing every day since its emergence, which basically coincided with the outset of the Internet. You can legally bet on sports today through one of the hundreds of different online sport betting sites where they are all headquartered at offshore gambling institutions in countries where it is legal to hold such activities. However, some of the sites out there are risky and you should choose your Internet sportsbook wisely.

Although you probably already know that gambling in itself is a dicey endeavor, placing a wager at a reputable online betting site can lower the risk of you losing your funds from a scam. In fact, the main reasons why online sports betting is becoming more popular are because it’s fun and can be done everyday, it adds an exciting element to a sporting event, and it gives you the opportunity to win a lot of easy money. Read this article to discover how you can safely and effortlessly place online sport bets and learn how to give yourself the opportunity to make easy money.

With the advent of the Internet, online sport betting has transformed the very definition of sports gambling. Traditionally, it has been regarded as a general activity for sports fans to participate in occasionally, which would heighten their interest for a particular game or sporting event. This activity would also benefit the leagues and teams of interest because there would be a bigger television audience and greater attendance numbers at the games themselves.

Back in the day, the only places you could even engage in such activities (in the United States) would be Las Vegas or other casinos where gambling was legal – and where there were numerous bookmakers standing by more than willing to accept your wager. However, the Internet has since opened the door for a worldwide online sport betting industry where gambling restrictions are weak or otherwise nonexistent.

You may be wondering: Is online sport betting legal? The answer is yes, and it can be done through an online sportsbook. Over the last decade, hundreds of Internet sportsbooks began accepting regular sports wagers from all types of bettors. Since the legality of sports betting and the general acceptance of gambling varies from country to country, nearly all online sportsbooks that have come into existence today are located offshore. Most are headquartered in Central American countries or on Caribbean island nations where not only they allow bookmakers to accept bets, but sports betting in general is a commended activity because the institutions provide strong financial benefits for its employees, especially in the smaller, poorer countries such as Jamaica and Costa Rica.

The best online sports betting sites advertise their companies through the mainstream media in the United States, such as in sports magazines, college newspapers, or on other general gambling websites. This is because the target market for these institutions are American sports bettors, especially because of the popularity of betting on games in baseball, basketball, and football.

However, as legitimate as they may seem, one must take caution before choosing an Internet sportsbook. They could be operating in a country with loosely defined laws or in one that doesn’t govern their regulations. Some are run by poorly financed companies, which would result in a high risk for bettors to safely wire money online to the sport betting sites and into their bankroll. The best betting sites generally have a few other companies that are all linked to a strong financial institution, such as the BetCRIS Group (Bet Costa Rica International Sports), which has been regarded as the industry leader in the offshore business.

In general, since online sport betting is readily available for sports fans and gamblers alike, it has been steadily growing as an entertaining activity to take part in and is increasing in popularity everyday. Today, there are overall fewer risks when placing a wager at a reputable sportsbook than there used to be before gambling came online. Sports betting has always heightened the interest for a particular sporting event, and will continue to adhere to the overall popularity of all games worldwide.

You can see how online betting provides the opportunity for anyone – regardless of gambling experience – to participate in a legal activity that can open the door to make easy money betting on sports. Online sport betting has made it very convenient for gamblers to make sports bets with Internet bookmakers in the comfort of their own home, and most betting sites offer a variety of valuable resources to use so that you always have the best chances of winning your bet.