Betting Tips and Money Management in Soccer Betting

Soccer experts provide you with betting tips, the media publishes the latest news about the opponent teams and their key players, bookmakers support hundreds of betting methods. However, when you finally place your huge wager on a sure favorite, this is the time to start praying. Unfortunately, the world of soccer betting is quite unpredictable. There are thousands of factors playing against us. How can we cut our betting losses? The only way to do it is by using money management strategies. This article summarizes the methods and strategies of betting money management and provides a statistical comparison of their performance based on betting odds and match results of top European leagues.

The most common betting money management strategies in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers and Kelly criterion. While the first two do not require any prior information, Kelly criterion requires the punter to know the probability of a win.

Definitions

Before presenting the performance analysis, a brief description of the above-mentioned strategies is necessary:

— Martingale strategy means doubling the stack after a loss and returning back to the starting stack after a win. This strategy is the most popular today and promises positive profits, but requires intensive money investments.

— Row of numbers means planning a series of constant profits. Given betting odds, the punter calculates each stake in a way that will allow him to make the planned profit. In case he loses, he should increase the next stack in such a way the profit will return both the money already lost and the planned profits for the lost games. This strategy is less aggressive than Martingale but still dangerous.

— Kelly criterion: mathematically proven to be the best strategy in the long run. However, it requires knowing the probability of a win. The stacks are calculated in proportion of the size of your funds and according to the relation between the probability of a win and the betting odds. When probability and odds are high, a high stack will be placed and vice versa.

Data and Methods

In order to evaluate the performance of each strategy, we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for the top European leagues. Imagine that bookmakers are punters who place a stake on a favorite with minimal betting odds. One can easily estimate the probability of a win by dividing the average number of home/draw/away outcomes by the total number of games in a season.

The betting odds and results are taken from the four European top leagues playing in the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division.

Summary

— The results show that Kelly criterion is the best money management strategy of the three with an average profit of +5% compared to +1% (Row) and +1.2% (Martingale).

— The most profitable was the French Ligue 1 with a betting profit of +22% (Kelly), +9% (Row) and +10% (Martingale).

— The least profitable was the English Premier League with a betting loses of -10% (Kelly) ), -9% (Row) and -8% (Martingale).

Do Betting Bots Really Make Money?

They have been around for several years now but the question remains can you make money with a betting bot. Betting bots are specialist pieces of software which integrate with betting exchanges like Betfair and Betdaq to automatically place bets within pre defined rules. If you set them up to a winning betting strategy yes you can make money with them.

I have developed many winning betting systems for horse racing and it’s long been a passion of mine. The issue has been that of time. As well as research to find the bets to place actually placing them can be very time consuming and the arrival of bots has revolutionised this for me.

A flexible bot like the oddly named grey horse bot can be used for a wide range of sports and this has opened up many other ways for me to make money. In particular, greyhound betting has become a very nice income stream. There are 300% more greyhound races than horse races in the UK and of course only 6 runners in each race. Also there are no jockeys to worry about and the ‘politics’ are much less of a factor! Greyhounds can be very unpredictable and using a betting bot it’s possible to make good profits laying them to lose.

Football betting is another way to make money with a betting bot. As well as straightforward backing and laying it’s also possible to trade for a profit on Betfair. This is all about making bets before the match kicks off and then making further bets as the game progresses. Again this can be very time consuming and so using a bot frees me up to do other things while it does the work for me.

Two of the concerns people have about bots are the potential cost and the safety and security issues. Many people think they are expensive to use but free trials of bots are usually offered. I more than coveer the monthly subscription with my regular ongoing profits. With regards to safety, a tool like grey horse bot has many in built safety features to limit your liability and protect your betting bank. I have never had issues with them as they are very sophisticated and built by experts.

A robust and reliable betting system is of course key to success. Over the past eleven years I have developed systems for horse racing, greyhounds and football and use these on a daily basis. Sadly there’s a lot of hype out there and new systems arrive on the market every week claiming to make thousands of dollars consistent profit. This really isn’t possible and you must bet safely and sensibly to protect your betting bank. I advise discipline is key and you must be able to resist ‘going for broke’ and deviating from a system!

Betting bots have revolutionised betting for me and compliment my winning systems to ensure I make ongoing profits without having to be tied to a computer screen all day.

Overcoming the Vig is the Secret to Making Money on Horse Racing Bets

The vig, short for vigorish, is the amount of money taken out of the pools at the track before the winners are paid. For instance, if the bettors wager a total of $10,000 to win in a race, there is a total of $10,000 in the win pool. However, when the race is over and the winners are paid, $10,000 isn’t the amount that gets distributed amongst the winners. It is far less because the track has to take out a certain amount that is determined by the state. That’s the vig.

Part of the money that is taken out is paid to the state and the rest is the track’s share. So let’s say that the vig is 18% and there is $10,000 in the pool. After the race you would expect $8,200 to be distributed among the winners, right? Sorry, it’s not that easy. You see, there is also breakage. What get’s broken and how come you have to pay for it? Why doesn’t the clumsy oaf who dropped it or sat on it and broke it pay for it?

No, no, breakage doesn’t mean something actually got broke, it means that race tracks pay out in nickels and dimes, not pennies, so they get to round a bet down to the nearest nickel or dime. For instance, if a bet would normally pay $6.55, the race track gets to keep the nickel and you get $6.50. Talk about being nickel and dimed!

That breakage may not seem like much, but if you bet $100 and would receive $4.05 for every two dollars bet, but instead receive $4.00, you’ve just donated $2.50 to the track so their tellers don’t have to deal with handling pennies. That’s another 2.5% out of your winnings, too. That $2.50 can really add up after a while, especially if you are trying to make a living by betting on the horse races.

As if overcoming the vig isn’t bad enough, there are other expenses involved in horse racing wagering. On the last day of January I decided to go the horse races. I wasn’t interested in the races at Santa Anita, so I decided to play the simulcasts from Golden Gate Fields. I figured I’d go to Hollywood Park since they didn’t have live racing there and it figured to be much less crowded.

However, what I didn’t take into account was the fact that it was dollar day at Santa Anita so I could have gotten in for $1. When I got to Hollywood, they charged me $7 just for the privilege of going in and watching and wagering on simulcast races. Seven bucks right off the top before I even made a bet or bought a hot dog.

It is at times like these that I ask myself why I don’t just go gamble in a casino where I can park and enter for free and also get a free meal after I’ve gambled for a few hours. $7 to bet on simulcast races? Then they have the nerve to complain because attendance at the races is declining. Gee I can’t figure out why, can you? The last time I went to Santa Anita, I had to pay to park, pay to get in, pay for a racing form. By the time I was done I had invested a small fortune and hadn’t even made a bet.

With all the ways there are to gamble or be entertained now, you would think the tracks would get a clue and start to help us horse players out. As money gets tighter, and it is, the tracks are really going to have to start being creative. Horse players can sit in their own homes now and play the races over the internet. While some of those services do charge you to deposit money, another sore subject with me, at least you are at home and not paying to get into a race track that isn’t even offering live racing.

Well enough of the ranting and raving, I think you get the idea and I hope the race tracks do, too. I’d hate to see racing fade any more than it already has but if it does, it will be because management dove it into the ground. They have a thrilling, live drama, that people can bet on and take part in as gamblers. It is a great product but they can ruin it if they don’t start trying to offer more to the players.

Back to the vig. My expenses for the day were the gas I put in my car to get to the track, the $7 I paid for the privilege of entering the track, the past performances I bought so I could handicap the races, the food I bought while I was at the track. By the time I was done, my expenses were $20. Add that to the breakage and vig and you can see that I would have to make some very good bets that paid well in order to make a profit that made a day of handicapping and travel worthwhile.

That is what you are up against if you are trying to make a profit from betting on horse races, so here is some advice. Cut your costs as much as you possibly can. Get the deals online for past performances. Place your wagers through whatever venue is legally available to you and watch all those incidental expenses that eat away your profit.

It is possible to make money from betting on horse races, but there will always be people who are trying to take as much of it away from you as they possibly can and the first ones standing in that line are the tracks themselves.

Enjoy your days at the races.