Betting Tips and Kelly Criterion in Soccer Betting 2008 Vs 2009

To be a successful punter in soccer betting, you should intelligently guess two main things: the probability of a win and the size of the stake. Online betting tips and team news can help you to estimate the probability of a win, but choosing the stake size is a more complicated task that requires each punter to decide according to his individual betting strategy.

This article summarizes a research intended to optimize the use of Kelly strategy, the most profitable of all the existing betting strategies. The research is based on a comparison between statistics of betting profits of top European soccer leagues that played during 2008/09 and those playing in 2009/10 seasons.

Data and Methods

  • The research was conducted based on match results and average betting odds from 60+ bookmakers taken from the following European Soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki Katigoria, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Super Lig.
  • Each match outcome receives its own value defined by multiplication: odds x probability of a win. When this value is higher than one, it is considered as a “value bet”.
  • The probability of home win/draw/away wins in this research is defined by the frequency of their appearance in a national tournament.
  • According to Kelly’s strategy, the wager for each outcome is calculated as follows: w * (p-(1-p)/(odds-1)) (w represents the wealth of the punter and p is the probability of a win). For example, if your wealth is 1000$, p is 50% and the odds are 2.5, then the preferable wager is equal to 1000$*(0.5 – 0.5/(2.5-1))=166$
  • The punter’s profit is calculated by assuming he places a wager according to the Kelly’s strategy for those outcomes whose value is the closest to the value bet defined a priory.
  • An optimal value bet is a bet resulting in a maximal profit for a punter.

Research Summary

According to the research, the optimal value bet for soccer betting is 1.37 (2009) compared to 1.39 (2008). The betting profit of a punter who uses Kelly’s strategy with these optimal value bets is equal to 10% in 2008 and 14% in 2009. The results show that when a punter uses Kelly’s strategy placing bets on the outcomes with an average value bet of 1.38, the betting profits will be maximal. High quality betting tips can increase the profits dramatically but the optimal value bets have to be recalculated to adapt them to the accuracy of your betting tips.

Online Poker Tips

Internet poker room is a good place to test your basic skills and define the best live poker game playing strategy for yourself. At the Internet poker room table you would have to play against possibly more skilled opponents.

The first and the main live poker game tip on our list is: do your homework, study the basic poker rules, memorize all possible poker hands, visit Internet poker forums, read books on poker, chat with other poker card players.

Then try playing a poker game online to master your skills!

Take full advantage of live poker game deposit bonuses at the Internet poker room you choose. Almost all Internet poker rooms offer deposit bonuses for new poker players, usually from $30 to $50.

Place a limit on the money you are going to gamble with before you start playing live poker game.

When playing a poker game, analyze the playing habits and poker playing strategies used by your opponents at the Internet poker room table.

As a beginner do not play too many poker hands, you will be sure to loose. Play only the higher value starting hands.

With chosen low poker limits you can play live poker game for several hours for less than the cost of a movie ticket. So even if you lose a little, think of the expense as a small payment for a nicely spent evening.

Play poker at your present mastery level. If you are just a beginner poker card player, do not rush into Internet poker room tournaments, your time will come after months of improving your skill in numerous live poker games.

Learn how to fold a poker hand and when. Fold if you have nothing in your hand, do not be afraid to fold poker hands as many times as necessary.

Becoming a successful player by mastering the art of choosing starting poker hands, employing pot odds, and aggressively betting your winning hands.